Posts Tagged ‘mortgage backed security’

Rates holding at historic lows

June 8, 2010

Interest rates are high, aren’t they? The experts predicted higher rates by mid year, and I even mentioned that would happen here, here, here, here, here, and here (if not more). If you read those posts, you will see there were several reasons why I (and essentially everyone else) thought this would happen. These reasons primarily revolved around the Federal Reserve ending their buying mortgage backed security (MBS) bonds.

* – definitely read the first linked post to get some more background information on that program from the Federal Reserve

SO… why are interest rates at their lowest point of 2010? Why did rates not dramatically rise when the Federal Reserve ended their program of buying  bonds?

Thanks to the debacle in Europe (along with our own economy that isn’t back on its feet), investors in the US and around the world are back to buying our debt (bonds) and not those of Europe. It was the heavy investing in Europe and the Euro that caused the precipitous drop in the value of the Dollar, which motivated the Federal Reserve to begin buying MBS bonds in late 2008 and increase their value.

Why is this important? – As the value of MBS bonds rise, interest rates fall. This cause and effect pattern, heavily influenced by the Federal Reserve over the past 18 months, led us to these historically low interest rates. When the program ended this past March, everyone assumed rates would rise. Well, they obviously didn’t and there were plenty of other investors more than willing to step in and buy bonds to keep rates low!

Now for the question we would ALL love to have answered, “What’s next for rates?”

In the past when interest rates got to these low levels, they almost immediately went back up. This seemed to be the self-imposed floor. Today? Not only have rates held, but they have slightly improved. They might actually get lower this time because:

  • The US economy is definitely not back on its feet and private sector hiring is down
  • The problems in Europe are just getting started as Hungary’s credit rating was down graded and Portugal, Spain, & Italy all share similar problems
  • Analysts are mixed whether or not the bailout for Greece will actually work

Regardless of what interest rates do (and it is anyone’s guess at this point), now is the time to speak with someone to get prequalified to buy a home OR to review your current mortgage to refinance. By doing so, you would be in a prime position to take advantage of interest rates at their current levels OR ready to move at a moments notice if rates continued to fall.

If that is you, I would enjoy the chance to speak with you and get everything in order for your new mortgage.

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